Burton, I, van Aalst, M. Come Hell or High Water: Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation into Bank Work. Washington DC: World Bank; 1999, 60 pp.
Burton, I, van Aalst, M. Look Before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation in World Bank Operations, Final Draft. Washington, DC: World Bank; 2004, 55 pp.
Adger, WN, Huq, S, Brown, K, Conway, D, Hulme, M. Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog Develop Stud 2003, 3:179–195.
Sperling, F, ed. Poverty and Climate Change—Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation. Washington DC: AfDB, ADB, DFID, EC DG Development, BMZ, DGIS, OECD, UNDP, UNEP and the World Bank; 2003, xii + 43 pp.
Agrawala, S, Ahmed, AU. Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change and Development. Paris: OECD; 2005, 154 pp.
Corbera, E, Conway, D, Goulden, M, Vincent, K. Climate change in Africa: Linking Science and Policy for Adaptation. Workshop Report, The Royal Society of London, March 2006, Tyndall Center and IIED.
Washington, R, Harrison, M, Conway, D, Black, E, Challinor, A, Grimes, D, Jones, R, Morse, A, Todd, M. African Climate Report. A report commissioned by the UK Government to review African climate science, policy and options for action. Defra, 2004.
Washington, R, Harrison, M, Conway, D, Black, E, Challinor, A, Grimes, D, Jones, R, Morse, A, Todd, M. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2006, 87:1355–1366.
The International Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). A GAP Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Program in Africa. IRI Technical Report Number IRITR/06/1, 2006, 52 pp. Available at: http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/publication/report/06‐01/. (Accessed March 1, 2010).
Glantz, MH. Drought and Hunger in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1987.
Lamb, PJ. Case studies of tropical Atlantic surface circulation patterns during recent sub‐Saharan weather anomalies: 1967 and 1968. Monthly Weather Rev 1978, 106:482–491.
Folland, CK, Palmer, TN, Parker, DE. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85. Nature 1986, 320:602–607.
Charney, JG. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 1977, 101:193–202.
Lare, AR, Nicholson, SE. Contrasting conditions of surface water balance in wet years and dry years as a possible land surface‐atmosphere feedback mechanism in the West African Sahel. J Clim 1994, 7:653–668.
Nicholson, SE. Land surface processes and Sahel climate. Rev Geophys 2000, 38:117–140.
Nicholson, SE. %22Environmental change within the historical period%22. In: Adams, WM, Goudie, AS, Orme, AR, eds. The Physical Geography of Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1996, 60–87.
Hulme, M. %22Climatic change within the period of meteorological records.%22 In: Adams, WM, Goudie, AS, Orme, AR, eds. The Physical Geography of Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1996, 88–102.
Behnke, RH, Scoones, I, Kervan, C. Range Ecology at Disequilibrium. New Models of Natural Variability and Pastoral Adaptation in African Savannas. London: ODI; 1993.
Peel, MC, McMahon, TA, Finlayson, BL. Continental differences in the variability of annual runoff—update and reassessment. J Hydrol 2004, 295:185–197.
Vörösmarty, CJ, Douglas, EM, Green, PA, Revenga, C. Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio 2005, 34:230–236.
Chidi Ibe, A. %22Vulnerability of African coastal cities to the impact of increased sea level rise: case studies of Lagos, Banjul and Dar‐Es‐Salaam.%22 Abstract In: Frassetto, R, ed. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Cities and Regions. Venice: Marsilio Editori; 1991.
Gleick, PH. The vulnerability of runoff in the Nile Basin to climatic changes. Environ Prof 1991, 13:66–73.
Conway, D, Krol, M, Alcamo, J, Hulme, M. Future availability of water in Egypt: the interaction of global, regional and basin scale driving forces in the Nile Basin. Ambio 1996, 25:336–342.
Schulze, RE. Impacts of global climate change in a hydrologically vulnerable region: challenges to South African hydrologists. Progr Phys Geogr 1997, 21:113–136.
Sivakumar, MVK. Climate change and implications for agriculture in Niger. Clim Change 1992, 20:297–312.
Downing, TE. Climate Change and Vulnerable Places: Global Food Security and Country Studies in Zimbabwe, Kenya, Senegal and Chile. Oxford: Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford; 1992.
Glantz, MH. Global warming and environmental change in sub‐Saharan Africa. Global Environ Change 1992, 2:183–204.
Suliman, M. Greenhouse Effect and Its Impact on Africa. London: Institute for African Alternatives; 1990.
Ominde, SH, Juma, C, eds. A Change in the Weather: African Perspectives on Climate Change. Nairobi: African Centre for Technology Studies, ACTS press; 1991.
Okoth‐Ogendo, WHO, Ojwang, JB, eds. A Climate for Development: Climate Change Policy Options for Africa. Nairobi: African Centre for Technology Studies, ACTS Press; 1995.
Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary, 2010. Available at: http://www.tiempocyberclimate.org. (Accessed March 1, 2010).
Dixon, RK, Smith, J, Guill, S. Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change. Clim Res Special Issue 1996, 6.
Burton, I, Huq, S, Lim, B, Pilifosova, O, Schipper, EL. From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Clim Policy 2002, 2:145–159.
Bohle, HG, Downing, TE, Watts, MJ. Climate change and social vulnerability: toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environ Change 1994, 437–448.
Downing, T, Ringius, L, Hulme, M, Waughray, D. Adapting to climate change in Africa. Mitigat Adapt Strat Global Change 1997, 2:19–44.
Hulme, M. Rainfall in central Sudan: an asset or a liability. Geoforum 1987, 18:321–331.
Apuuli, B, Wright, J, Elias, C, Burton, I. Reconciling national and global priorities in adaptation to climate change with an illustration from Uganda. Environ Monit Assess 2000, 61:145–159.
Klein, RJ, Eriksen, S, Naess, LO, Hammill, A, Tanner, TM, Robledo, C, O`Brien, K. Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance. Clim Change 2007, 84:23–44.
Klein, RJT. Adaptation to Climate Change in German Official Development Assistance—An Inventory of Activities and Opportunities with a Special Focus on Africa. Eschborn: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit; 2001, 42.
Eriksen, S, Næss, LO. Pro‐Poor climate adaptation: Norwegian development cooperation and climate change adaptation—an assessment of issues, strategies and potential entry points. CICERO Report 2003:2, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, University of Oslo, Norway; 2003, viii + 75 pp.
Tanner, T. Climate risk screening of development portfolios and Programs. IDS Bull Inst Develop Stud 2008, 39:87–95.
Danida. Danish Climate and Development Action Program—A Tool Kit for Climate Proofing Danish Development Cooperation. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Danida, August 2005.
Lobell, DB, Burke, MB, Tebaldi, C, Mastrandrea, MD, Falcon, WP, Naylor, RL. Prioritising climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 2008, 319:607–610.
Funk, C, Dettinger, MD, Michaelsen, JC, Verdin, JP, Brown, M, Barlow, M, Hoell, A. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. PNAS 2008, 105:11081–11086.
Ellis, J. %22Climate, variability and complex ecosystem dynamics: implementation for pastoral development.%22 In: Scoones, I, ed. Living with Uncertainty. London: International Institute for Environment and Development, Intermediate Technology Publications; 1995, 37–46.
Lankford, B, Beale, T. Equilibrium and non‐equilibrium theories of sustainable water resources management: dynamic river basin and irrigation behaviour in Tanzania. Global Environ Change 2007, 17:168–180.
Sarch, MT, Allison, EH, Fluctuating fisheries in Africa`s inland waters: well adapted livelihoods, maladapted management. Proceedings of the Conference “Microbehavior, Macroresults and Externalities: Conceptual Issues”. Corvallis, Oregon: International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET); 2000, 11 pp. Available at: http://oregonstate.edu/dept/IIFET/2000/papers/sarch.pdf. (Accessed March 1, 2010).
Conway, D, Allison, E, Felstead, R, Goulden, M. Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods. Phil Trans Roy Soc London A 2005, 363:49–54.
Mortimore, MJ, Adams, WM. Farmer adaptation, change and crisis in the Sahel. Global Environ Change 2001, 11:49–57.
Mortimore, M. Roots in the African Dust. Sustaining the Sub‐Saharan Drylands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1998.
Batterbury, S, Warren, A. The African Sahel 25 years after the great drought: assessing progress and moving towards new agendas and approaches. Global Environ Change 2001, 11:1–8.
Hulme, M, Biot, Y, Borton, J, Buchanan‐Smith, M, Davies, S, Folland, C, Nicholds, N, Seddon, D, Ward, N. Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa. Part I: current status and future developments. Int J Environ Stud 1992, 39:245–256.
Hulme, M, Biot, Y, Borton, J, Buchanan‐Smith, M, Davies, S, Folland, C, Nicholds, N, Seddon, D, Ward, N. Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa. Part II. Application and impact assessment. Int J Environ Stud 1992, 40:103–121.
Simms, A, Magrath, J, Reid, H. Up in Smoke. Threats from, and Responses to, the Impact of Global Warming on Human Development. London: New Economics Foundation; 2004.
Burke, MB, Miguel, E, Satyanath, S, Dykema, JA, Lobell, D. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. PNAS 2009, 106:20670–20674.
Swift, J. %22Desertification: narratives, winners and losers.%22 In: Leach, M, Mearns, R, eds. The Lie of the Land: Challenging Received Wisdom on the African Environment. London: The International African Institute; 1996, 73–90.
Thomas, D. Desertification: the uneasy interface between science, people and environmental issues in Africa. Rev African Political Econ 1997, 74:583–589.
Eklundh, L, Olsson, L. Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999. Geophys Res Lett 2003, 30:1430. doi:10.1029/2002GL016772.
Seaquist, JW, Olsson, L, Ardo, J, Eklundh, L. Broad‐scale increase in NPP quantified for the African Sahel 1982–1999. Int J Remot Sens 2006, 27:5115–5122.
Seaquist, JW, Hickler, T, Eklundh, L, Ardo, J, Heumann, BW. Disentangling the effects of climate and people on Sahel vegetation dynamics. Biogeosciences 2009, 6:469–477.
Evans, J, Geerken, R. Discrimination between climate and human induced dryland degradation. J Arid Environ 2004, 57:535–554.
Lenton, TM, Schellnhuber, J. Tipping the scales. Nature Rep Clim Change 2007, 1:97–98.
Washington, R, Downing, TE. Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall: prediction, responses and household food security. Geograph J 1999, 165:255–274.
O`Brien, K, Vogel, C. Coping with Climate Variability, the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing Ltd.; 2003.
Hellmuth, M, Moorhead, A, Thomson, MC, Willams, J, eds. Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. New York: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 2007.
Stockdale, T, Alves, TO, Boer, G, Deque, M, Ding, Y, Kumar, A, Kumar, K, Landman, W, Mason, S, Nobre, P, et al. Understanding and predicting seasonal to interannual climate variability—the producer perspective. WMO World Climate Conference 3, 2009.
Goddard, L, Aitchellouche, Y, Baethgen, W, Dettinger, M, Graham, R, Hayman, P, Kadi, M, Martínez, R, Meinke, H. Providing seasonal‐to‐interannual climate information for risk management and decision making. WMO World Climate Conference 3, 2009.
Phillips, JG, McIntyre, B. ENSO and interannual rainfall variability in Uganda: implications for agricultural management. Int J Climatol 2000, 20:171–182.
Hansen, JW, Indeje, M. Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation for maize yield prediction in semi‐arid Kenya. Agri Forecast Meteorol 2004, 125:143–157.
Galvin, KA, Boone, RB, Smith, NM, Lynn, SJ. Impacts of climate variability on East African pastoralists: linking social science and remote sensing. Clim Res 2001, 19:161–172.
Luseno, WK, McPeak, JG, Barrett, CB, Little, PD, Gerbu, G. Assessing the value of climate forecast information for pastoralists: evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. World Develop 2003, 31:1477–1494.
Graham, RJ, Gordon, M, McLean, PJ, Ineson, S, Huddleston, MR, Davey, MK, Brookshaw, A, Barnes, R. A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model. Tellus 2005, 57A:320–339.
Conner, SJ, Da Silva, J, Katikiti, S. %22Malaria control in southern Africa.%22 In: Hellmuth, M, Moorhead, A, Thomson, MC, Willams, J, eds. Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. New York: International Research Institute for Climate and Society; 2007, 59–74.
Patt, AG, Winkler, J. Applying climate information in Africa. Consultancy Report to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2007.
Patt, AG. %22Learning to crawl: how to use seasonal climate forecasts to build adaptive capacity.%22 In: Adger, N, Lorenzoni, I, O`Brien, K, eds. Living with Climate Change: Are There Limits to Adaptation? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2009, 79–95.
Patt, A, Gwata, C. Effective seasonal forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environ Change 2002, 12:185–195.
Blench, R. Seasonal climate forecasting: who can use it and how should it be disseminated? Nat Resour Perspect 1999, 47:1–5.
Tarhule, A, Lamb, PJ. Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans‐Perceptions, dissemination, and use? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2003, 84:1741.
Patt, AG, Ogallo, L, Hellmuth, M. Learning from 10 years of climate outlook forums in Africa. Science 2007, 318:49–50. doi:10.1126/science.1147909] (in Policy Forum).
Smith, DM, Cusack, S, Colman, AW, Folland, CK, Harris, GR, Murphy, JM. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 2007, 317:796–799. doi:10.1126/science.1139540.
Wilby, RL, Troni, J, Biot, Y, Tedd, L, Hewitson, BC, Smith, DM, Sutton, RT. A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. Int J Climatol 2009, 29:1193–1215.
Fauchereau, N, Pohl, B, Reason, CJC, Rouault, M, Richard, Y. Recurrent daily OLR patterns in the Southern Africa/Southwest Indian Ocean region, implications for South African rainfall and teleconnections. Clim Dyn 2009, 32:575–591. doi: 10.1007/S00382‐008‐0426‐2.
Dessai, S, Hulme, M. How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations? Atmos Sci Lett 2008, 9:189–195. doi:10.1002/asl.197.
Zhang, X, Zwiers, FW, Hegerl, GC, Lambert, FH, Gillett, NP, Solomon, S, Stott, PA, Nozawa, T. Detection of human influence on twentieth‐century precipitation trends. Nature 2007, 448:461–465.
Giannini, A, Biasutti, M, Held, IM, Sobel, AH. A global perspective on African climate. Clim Res 2008, 90:359–383.
Conway, D. %22Extreme rainfall events and lake level changes in East Africa: recent events and historical precedents.%22 In: Odada, EO, Olago, DO, eds. The East African Great Lakes: Limnology, Palaeolimnology and Biodiversity, Advances in Global Change Research, Vol 12. Dordrecht: Kluwer; 2002, 63–92.
Saji, NH, Boswami, BN, Vinayachandran, PN, Yamagata, T. A dipole made in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 1999, 401:360–363.
Webster, PJ, Moore, AM, Loschnigg, JP, Lebden, RR. Coupled ocean‐atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature 1999, 401:356–360.
Nicholson, SE. The intensity, location and structure of the tropical rainbelt over west Africa as factors in interannual variability. Int J Climatol 2008, 28:1775–1785.
Odekunle, TO, Eludoyin, AO. Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa. Int J Climatol 2008, 28:1507–1517.
Balas, N, Nicholson, SE, Klotter, D. The relationship of rainfall variability in West Central Africa to sea‐surface temperature fluctuations. Int J Climatol 2007, 27:1335–1349.
Hagos, SM, Cook, KH. Ocean warming and the late‐twentieth‐century Sahel drought and recovery. J Clim 2008, 21:3797–3814.
Williams, CJR, Kniveton, DR, Layberry, R. Influence of South Atlantic Sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa. J Clim 2008, 21:6498–6520.
Paeth, H, Scholten, A, Friederichs, P, Hense, A. Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Nino‐Southern Oscillation and monsoons. Global Planet Chan 2008, 60:265–288.
Chang, P, Zhang, R, Hazeleger, W, Wen, C, Wan, XQ, Ji, L, Haarsma, RJ, Breugem, WP, Seidel, H. Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon. Nature Geosci 2008, 1:444–448.
Kay, G, Washington, R. Future southern African summer rainfall variability related to a southwest Indian Ocean dipole in HadCM3. Geophys Res Lett 2008, 35:L12701.
Manatsa, D, Chingombe, W, Matarira, CH. The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts. Int J Climatol 2008, 28:2011–2029.
Camberlin, P, Martiny, N, Philippon, N, Richard, Y. Determinants of the interannual relationships between remote sensed photosynthetic activity and rainfall in tropical Africa. Remote Sens Environ 2007, 106:199–216.
Giannini, A, Biasutti, M, Verstraete, MM. A climate model‐based review of drought in the Sahel: desertification, the re‐greening and climate change. Global Planet Change 2008, 64:119–128.
Lavender, SL, Matthews, AJ. Response of the West African monsoon to the Madden‐Julian oscillation. J Clim 2009, 22:4097–4116.
Reason, CJC. African climate and applications. Int J Climatol 2009, 29:935. doi:10.1002/joc.1931.
Cappelaere, B, Descroix, L, Lebel, T, Boulain, N, Ramier, D, Laurent, J‐P, Favreau, G, Boubkraoui, S, Bouchera, M, Bouzou Moussac, I, et al. G The AMMA‐CATCH experiment in the cultivated Sahelian area of south‐west Niger—investigating water cycle response to a fluctuating climate and changing environment. J Hydrol 2009, 375:34–51.
Biasutti, M, Held, IM, Sobel, AB, Giannini, A. SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty‐first centuries. J Clim 2008, 21:3471–3486.
Scaife, AA, Kucharski, F, Folland, CK, Kinter, J, Fereday, D, Grainger, S, Jin, K, Knight, JR, Kusunoki, S, Nath, MJ, et al. The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events. Clim Dyn 2009, 33:603–614.
Merryfield, W. Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multi‐model ensemble. J Clim 2006, 19: 4009–4027.
Spencer, H, Sutton, RT, Slingo, JM, Roberts, M, Black, E. Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. J Clim 2005, 18:2286–2307.
Conway, D, Hanson, CE, Doherty, R, Persechino, A. GCM simulations of the Indian Ocean dipole influence on East African rainfall: present and future. Geophys Res Lett 2007, 34:L03705. doi:10.1029/ 2006GL027597.
Rowell, DP, Folland, CK, Maskell, K, Ward, MN. Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa 1906–1992, observations and modelling. QJR Met Soc 1995, 121:669–704.
Knight, JR, Folland, CK, Scaife, AA. Climatic Impacts of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 2006, 33:L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
Baines, P, Folland, CK. Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. J Clim 2007, 12:2721–2744. News Focus item in Science 10 Aug 2007.
Knight, J, Allan, RJ, Folland, CK, Vellinga, M, Mann, ME. Natural Variations in the thermohaline circulation and future surface temperature. Geophys Res Lett 2005:32:L20708, doi:1029/2005GL024233.
Rowell, DP. The impact of Mediterranean SSTs on the Sahelian rainfall season. J Clim 2003, 16:849–862.
Rotstayn, LD, Lohmann, U. Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect. J Clim 2002, 15: 2103–2116.
Christensen, JH, Hewitson, B, Busuioc, A, Chen, A, Gao, X, Held, I, Jones, R, Kolli, RK, Kwon, W‐T, Laprise, R, et al. %22Regional climate projections.%22 In: Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt, KB, Tignor, M, Miller, HL, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
Goulden, M, Conway, D, Persechino, A. Challenges of adaptation to climate change in transboundary river basins in Africa. Hydrol Sci J 2009, 54:805–828.
IPCC. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007, Climate Change impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Held, IM, Delworth, TL, Lu, J, Findell, KL, Knutson, TR. Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. PNAS 2005, 102:17891–17896.
Cook, KH, Vizy, EK. Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: 20th century simulations and 21st century predictions. J Clim 2006, 19:3681–3703.
Cook, KH. Mysteries of Sahel droughts. Nat Geosci 2008, 1:647–648.
Giannini, A. Mechanisms of climate change in the semiarid African Sahel: The local view. J Clim 2010, 23:743–756.
Shongwe, ME, Van Oldenborgh, GJ, Van Den Hurk, BJJM. Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa. J Clim 2009, 22:3819–3837.
Milly, PCD, Dune, KA, Vecchia, AV. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 2005, 438. doi:10. 1038/nature04312.
Segele, ZT, Leslie, LM, Lamb, PJ. Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. Int J Climatol 2009, 29:47–65.
Hewitson, BC, Crane, RG. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int J Climatol 2006, 26:1315–1337.
Sun, LQ, Semazzi, FHM, Giorgi, F, Ogallo, L. Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa—1. Simulation of the short rains of 1988. J Geophys Res‐Atmos 1999, 104:6529–6548.
Sun, LQ, Semazzi, FHM, Giorgi, F, Ogallo, L. Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa—2. Simulation of interannual variability of short rains. J Geophys Res‐Atmos 1999, 104: 6549–6562.
Arnell, NW, Hudson, DA, Jones, RG. Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: estimating change in runoff in southern Africa. J Geophys Res‐Atmos 2003, 108:4519. doi:10.1029/2002JD002782.
Tadross, MA, Gutowski, WJ , Jr. Hewitson, BC, Jack, C, New, M. MM5 simulations of interannual change and the diurnal cycle of southern African regional climate. Theoret Appl Climatol 2006, 86:63–80.
Anyah, RO, Semazzi, FHM. Variability of East African rainfall based on multiyear RegCM3 simulations. Int J Climatol 2007, 27:357–371.
Kgatuke, MM, Landman, WA, Beraki, A, Mbedzi, MP. The internal variability of the RegCM3 over South Africa. Int J Climatol 2008, 28:505–520.
Kniveton, DR, Todd, MC. Water resources in regional development: the Okavango river. J Hydrol 2006, 331:1–2.
Taylor, RG, Koussis, AD, Tindimugaya, C. Groundwater and climate in Africa—a review. Hydrol Sci J 2009, 54:655–664.
Dessai, S, Lu, X, Risbey, JS. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning. Global Environ Change 2005, 15:87–97.
Conway, D, Schipper, L, Yesuf, M, Kassie, M, Persechino, A, Kebede, B. Reducing Vulnerability in Ethiopia: Addressing the Implications of Climate Change: Integration of Results from Phase I. University of East Anglia, Overseas Development Group; 2007, 38 pp.
Ziervogel, G, Zermoglio, F. Climate change scenarios and the development of adaptation strategies in Africa: challenges and opportunities. Clim Res 2009, 40:133–146.
Hulme, M, Doherty, R, Ngara, T, New, M, Lister, D. African climate change: 1900–2100. Clim Res 2001, 17:145–168.
L`Hôte, Y, Mahe, G, Some, B, Triboulet, JP. Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index updated from 1896 to 2000; the drought still goes on. Hydrol Sci J 2002, 47:563–572.
Dai, AD, Lamb, PJ, Trenberth, KE, Hulme, M, Jones, PD, Xie, P. The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol 2004, 24:1323–1331.
Nicholson, SE. On the question of the “recovery” of the rains in the West African Sahel. J Arid Environ 2005, 63:615–641.
Ali, A, Lebel, T. The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited. Int J Climatol 2009, 29:1705–1714.
Conway, D, Persechino, A, Ardoin‐Bardin, S, Hamandawana, H, Dieulin, C, Mahe, G. Rainfall and water resources variability in sub‐Saharan Africa during the 20th century. J Hydrometeorol 2009, 10:41–59. doi:10.1175/2008JHM1004.1.
Hulme, M. %22The sensitivity of Sahel rainfall to global warming: implications for scenario analysis of future climate change impact.%22 In: Servat, E, Hughes, D, Fritsch, JM, Hulme, M, eds. Water Resources Variability in Africa during the XXth Century. Proceedings of Abidjan `98 November; 1998, 429–436. IAHS Publ. no. 252.
Shanahan, TM, Overpeck, JT, Anchukaitis, KJ, Beck, JW, Cole, JE, Dettman, DL, Peck, JA, Scholz, CA, King, JW. Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa. Science 2009, 324:377–380. doi:10.1126/ science.1166352.
Verschuren, D, Laird, KR, Cumming, BF. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the last 1,100 years. Nature 2000, 403:410–413.
Kniveton, DR, Layberry, R, Williams, CJR, Peck, M. Trends in the start of the wet season over Africa. Int J Climatol 2009, 29:1216–1225.
Camberlin, P, Moron, V, Okoola, R, Philippon, N, Gitau, W. Components of rainy seasons` variability in Equatorial East Africa: onset, cessation, rainfall frequency and intensity. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2009, 98:237–249.
Aguilar, E, Barry, AA, Brunet, M, Ekang, L, Fernandes, A, Massoukina, M, Mbah, J, Mhanda, A, do Nascimento, DJ, Peterson, TC, et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006. J Geophys Res 2009, 114:D02115. doi:10.1029/ 2008JD011010.
New, M, Hewitson, B, Stephenson, DB, Tsiga, A, Kruger, A, Manhique, A, Gomez, B, Coelho, CAS, Masisi, DN, Kululanga, E, et al. Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J Geophys Res Atmospheres 2006, 111:D14.
Kruger, AC. Observed trends in daily precipitation indices in South Africa: 1910–2004. Int J Climatol 2006, 26:2275–2285.
Desanker, PV, Africa, MC. IPCC Working Group II, Third Assessment Report, 2001, Chapter 10.
King`uyu, SM, Ogallo, LA, Anyamba, EK. Recent trends of minimum and maximum surface temperatures over Eastern Africa. J Clim 2000, 13:2876–2886.
Kaser, G, Hardy, DR, Molg, T, Bradley, RS, Hyera, TM. Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: observations and facts. Int J Climatol 2004, 24:329–339.
Hay, SI, Cox, J, Rogers, DJ, Randolph, SE, Stern, DI, Shanks, GD, Myers, MF, Snow, RW. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. Nature 2002, 415:905–909.
Endfield, G, Ryves, D, Mills, K, Berrang‐Ford, L. The gloomy forebodings of this dread disease, climate, famine and sleeping sickness in East Africa. Geograph J 2009, 175:181–195.
Verburg, P, Hecky, RE, Kling, H. Ecological consequences of a century of warming in Lake Tanganyika. Science 2003, 301:505–507.
O`Reilly, CM, Alin, SR, Plisnier, P‐D, Cohen, AS, McKee, BA. Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. Nature 2003, 424:766–768. doi:10.1038/nature01833.
Eschenbach, WW. Climate‐change effect on Lake Tanganyika? Nature 2004:430.
Tierney, JE, Mayes, MT, Meyer, N, Johnson, C, Swarzenski, PW, Cohen, AS, Russell, JM. Late‐twentieth‐century warming in Lake Tanganyika unprecedented since AD 500. Nature Geosci 2010, 3:422–425. doi:10.1038/ngeo865.
Tarhule, A. Damaging rainfall and flooding: the other sahel hazards. Clim Change 2005, 72:355–377.
Tschakert, P, Sagoe, R, Ofori‐Darko, G, Codjoe, SN. Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning. Clim Change 2010, 103:471–502. doi:10.1007/s10584‐009‐9776‐y.
Cannell, MGR, Palutikof, J, Sparks, TH. Indicators of Climate Change in the UK. Yorkshire: DETR Publishing, 1999.
IRI. Sustainable Development in Africa: Is the Climate Right? The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. Columbia: University, Palisades, NY; 2005, 48 pp.
Runci, PJ. Perspective: expanding the participation of developing country scientists in international climate change research. Environ Pract 2007, 9:225–227.
Hulme, M, Mahony, M. Climate change: what do we know about the IPCC? Prog Phys Geograph 2010, 34:705–718.
Leary, NA, Adejuwon, J, Barros, V, Burton, I, Kulkarni, J, Lasco, R, eds. Climate Change and Adaptation. London: Earthscan Publications; 2008.
GCOS Climate Information for Development Needs: An Action Plan for Africa, Report and Implementation Strategy. Ethiopia: Addis Ababa; 2006, 99 pp.
Pound, B, Adolph, B. Developing the Capacity of Research Systems in Developing Countries: Lessons Learnt and Guidelines for Future Initiatives. Chatham Maritime, Chatham, Kent: Natural Resources Institute; 2005, 24 pp.
Wilby, RL, Gelli, A, Carter, A, O`Shea, K. Climate Change Research and Development Sciences. The UK Collaborative on Development Sciences (UKCDS) Work stream report, 2007, 36 pp.
Patt, AG, Dessai, S. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment. Comptes Rendus Geosci 2005, 337:425–441.
Ovuka, M, Lindqvist, S. Rainfall variability in Murang`a District, Kenya: meteorological data and farmers` perception. Geografiska Ann: Ser A, Phys Geograph 2000, 82:107–119.
Meze‐Hausken, E. Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in Northern Ethiopia. Clim Res 2004, 27:19–31.
Sledgers, MFW. ‘If only it would rain’: Farmers` perception of rainfall and drought in semi‐arid central Tanzania. J Arid Environ 2008, 72:2106–2123.
West, CT, Roncoli, C, Ouattara, F. Local perceptions and regional climate trends on the central plateau of Burkina Faso. Land Degrad Develop 2008, 19:289–304.
Goulden, M, Næss, LO, Vincent, K, Adger, WN. %22Accessing diversification, networks and traditional resource management as adaptations to climate extremes.%22 In: Lorenzoni, WN, O`Brien, I, eds. KL Adapting to Climate Change. Thresholds, Values, Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2009.
Benson, C, Clay, E. The Impact of Drought on Sub‐Saharan African Economies. World Bank Technical Paper No. 401. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 2008.
Conway, D, Schipper, ELF. Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environ Change 2011, 21:227–237.
World Bank. Managing Water Resources to Maximise Sustainable Growth: A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia. Washington, DC: World Bank; 2006.
Jury, MJ. Economic impacts of climate variability in South Africa. J Appl Meteorol 2003, 41:46–55.
Berkhout, F, Hertin, J, Jordan, A. Socio‐economic futures in climate change impacts assessment: using scenarios as learning machines. Global Environ Change 2002, 12:83–95.
O`Brien, KL, Leichenko, RM. Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environ Change: Hum Policy Dimen 2000, 10:221–232.
Ziervogel, G, Calder, R. Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in Lesotho. Area 2003, 35:403–417.
Mertz, O, Mbow, C, Reenberg, A, Diouf, A. Farmers` Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel. Environmental Management 2009, 43:804–816.
Brown, O, Hammill, A, McLeman, R. Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: Implications for Africa. Int Affairs 2007, 83:1141–1154.
Kevane, M, Gray, L. Darfur: rainfall and conflict. Environ Res Lett 2008, 3:1–10. doi:10.1088/1748‐9326/3/3/034006.
Sutton, AE, Dohn, J, Loyd, K, Tredennick, A, Bucini, G, Solorzano, A, Prihodko, L, Hana, NP. Does warming increase the risk of civil war in Africa? PNAS 2010, 107:E102.
Dessai, S, Hulme, M. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Clim Policy 2004, 4:107–128.
Eakin, H, Tompkins, EL, Nelson, D, Anderies, JM. %22Hidden costs and disparate uncertainties: trade‐offs involved in approaches to climate policy.%22 In: Adger, WN, Lorenzoni, I, O`Brien, K, eds. Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, and Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2006, 212–226.
Heltberg, R, Siegel, PB, Jorgensen, SL. Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: toward a ‘no regrets’ approach. Global Environ Change 2009, 19:89–99.
Eva, HD, Lambin, EF. Remote sensing of biomss burning in tropical regions: sampling issues and multisensor approach. Remote Sensing Environ 1998, 64:292–315.
Grimes, DIF, Pardo‐Igúzquiza, E, Bonifacio, R. Optimal areal rainfall estimation using raingauges and satellite data. J Hydrol 1999, 222:93–108.
Todd, MC, Kidd, C, Kniveton, D, Bellerby, TJ. A combined satellite infrared and passive microwave technique for estimation of small‐scale rainfall. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 2001, 18:742–755.
Hay, SI, Lennon, JJ. Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector‐borne disease: a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate. Trop Med Int Health 1999, 4:58–71.
Landman, WA, Beraki, A. Multi‐model forecast skill for mid‐summer rainfall over southern Africa. Int J Climatol 2011, 31. doi:10.1002/joc.2273.
Broad, K, Agrawala, S. The Ethiopia food crisis—uses and limits of climate forecasts. Science 2000, 289:1693–1694.
Burton, I, May, E. The adaptation deficit in water resource management. IDS Bul‐Inst Dev Stud 2004, 35:31–37.
Dessai, S, Groves, D, Lempert, R. Approaches to identifying climate change adaptation strategies: a comparison of case studies in the UK and California. IOP Conference Series. Earth Environ Sci 2009, 6–29, 292019. doi:10.1088/1755‐1307/6/9/292019.