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WIREs Cogn Sci

The development of causal reasoning

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How do inference rules for causal learning themselves change developmentally? A model of the development of causal reasoning must address this question, as well as specify the inference rules. Here, the evidence for developmental changes in processes of causal reasoning is reviewed, with the distinction made between diagnostic causal inference and causal prediction. Also addressed is the paradox of a causal reasoning literature that highlights the competencies of young children and the proneness to error among adults. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:327–335. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1160

Figure 1.

Integrating theory and evidence into a univariable causal model.

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Figure 2.

Portrayal of the problem studied by Schulz and Gopnik (2004).32

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Figure 3.

Portrayal of the problem studied by Waldmann and Hagmayer (2005).36

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Figure 4.

Scenario presented to train‐station volunteers.37

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Figure 5.

Multivariable causal reasoning problem. (Reprinted with permission from Ref 47. Copyright 2009 Elsevier)

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Figure 6.

Intervention effects on valid inferences. (Reprinted with permission from Ref 52. Copyright 2008 Elsevier)

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Konrad Körding

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Konrad Körding is Assistant Professor of Physiology and Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, part of Northwestern University. Before joining Northwestern in 2006, Professor Körding worked in three different research groups, most recently in 2004-2005 at MIT, studying machine learning and hierarchical Bayesian models.


Professor Körding is a member of the Swiss Society for Neuroscience, the German Society for Neuroscience, the Society for Neuroscience (USA) and the Electronic Frontier Foundation.

Professor Körding’s current research with the Bayesian Behavior group aims to improve rehabilitation procedures through a greater understanding of motor learning. In order to do this the team studies how people move, and how these movements are affected by uncertainty.

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