1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC
2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt, KB, Tignor, M, Miller, HL, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC
3 National Research Council, Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
. Washington, DC: National Academy Press
4 National Research Council, Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change
. Washington, DC: National Academy Press
5 Weyant, J, Davidson, O, Dowlatabadi, H, Edmonds, J, Grubb, M, Parson, EA, Richels, R, Rotmans, J, Shukla, P, Tol, RSJ, et al. %22Integrated assessment of climate change: an overview and comparison of approaches and results.%22 In: Bruce, J, Lee, H, Haites, E, eds. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change
. Chapter 10. Cambridge: IPCC/Cambridge University Press
; 1996, 367–396.
6 Parson, EA, Fisher‐Vanden, K. Integrated assessment models of global climate change. Annu Rev Energy Environ 1997, 22:589–628.
7 Rotmans, J, Dowlatabadi, H. %22Integrated assessment of climate change: evaluation of models and other methods.%22 In: Malone, S, Rayner, E, eds. Human Choice and Climate Change
. Vol 3. Columbus OH: Battelle Press
8 Kelly, DL, Kolstad, CD. %22Integrated assessment models for climate change control.%22 In: Folmer, H, Tietenberg, T, eds. International Yearbook of Environmental and Resource Economics 1999/2000: A Survey of Current Issues
. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar
9 Hope, C. %22A fast and simple model of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.%22 Research Papers in Management Studies 1992
. Cambridge: Judge Institute in Management Studies
10 Dowlatabadi, H, Morgan, MG. Integrated assessment of climate change. Science 1993, 259:1813.
11 Webster, MD, Forest, C, Reilly, J, Baliker, M, Kicklighter, D, Mayer, M, Prinn, R, Sarofim, M, Sokolof, A, Stone, P, et al. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Clim Change 2003, 61:295–320.
12 Keller, K, Bolker, BM, Bradford, DF. Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. J Environ Econ Manage 2004, 48:723–741.
13 Smith, SJ, Edmonds, JA. The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty. Tellus B Chem Phys Meteorol 2006, 58:586–590. doi:10.1111/j.1600‐0889.2006.00217.x.
14 Caetano, MAL, Gherardi, D, Ribeiro, G, Yoneyama, T. Reduction of CO2
emissions by optimally tracking a pre‐defined target. Ecol Model 2009, 220:2536–2542.
15 Jarvis, A, Young, P, Leedal, D, Chotai, A. A robust sequential CO2
emissions strategy based on optimal control for atmospheric CO2
concentrations. Clim Change 2008, 86:357–373.
16 Jarvis, A, Leedal, D, Taylor, C, Young, P. Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: a feedback control perspective. Environ Model Softw 2009, 24:665–674.
17 Clarke, L, Edmonds, J, Jacoby, H, Pitcher, H, Reilly, J, Richels, R. %22Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations.%22 Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 Sub‐Report 2.1A
. U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, DC: Department of Energy, Office of Biological %26 Environmental Research
18 Nordhaus, WD. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
19 Richels, RG, Rutherford, TF, Blanford, GJ, Clarke, L. Managing the transition to climate stabilization. Clim Policy 2007, 7:409–428.
20 Manne, AS, Richels, RG. Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
21 Manne, AS. %22Hedging strategies for global carbon dioxide abatement: a summary of poll results—EMF 14 subgroup—analysis for decisions under uncertainty.%22 Nakicenovic, N, Nordhaus, WD, Richels, R, Toth, FL, eds. Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy, IIASA CP‐96‐1. Austria: IIASA
; 1996, 207–228.
22 Yohe, G. Exercises in hedging against extreme consequences of global change and the expected value of information. Glob Environ Change 1996, 6:87–101.
23 Kolstad, CD. %22Looking vs. leaping: the timing of CO2
control in the fact of uncertainty and learning.%22 In: Kaya, Y, Nakicenovic, N , Nordhaus, WD , Toth, FL , eds. Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of CO2 Mitigation
, IIASA CP‐93‐2. Austria: IIASA
; 1993, 63–82.
24 Hammitt, JK, Lempert, RJ, Schlesinger, ME. A sequential‐decision strategy for abating climate change. Nature 1992, 357:315–318.
25 Arrow, KJ, Fisher, AC. Environmental preservation, uncertainty, and irreversibility. Q J Econ 1974, 88: 312–319.
26 Dixit, AK, Pindyck, RS. Investment Under Uncertainty
. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
27 Henry, C. Investment decisions under uncertainty: the irreversibility effect. Am Econ Rev 1974, 64: 1006–1012.
28 Epstein, LG. Decision‐making and the temporal resolution of uncertainty. Int Econ Rev 1980, 21:269–283.
29 Nordhaus, WD. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
30 Ulph, A, Ulph, D. Global warming, irreversibility, and learning. Econ J 1997, 107:636–650.
31 Pindyck, RS. Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy. Resour Energy Econ 2000, 22: 233–259.
32 Kolstad, CD, Ulph, A. Learning and international environmental agreements. Clim Change 2008, 89:125–141.
33 Summers, L, Zeckhauser, RJ. Policymaking for posterity. J Risk Uncertain 2008, 37:115–140.
34 Webster, MD. The curious role of learning in climate policy: should we wait for more data? Energy J 2002, 23:97–119.
35 Lange, A, Treich, N. Uncertainty, learning and ambiguity in economic models on climate policy: some classical results and new directions. Clim Change 2008, 89:7–21.
36 Yohe, G, Andronova, N, Schlesinger, M. To hedge or not against an uncertain climate future? Science 2004, 306:416–417.
37 Harvey, LDD. Uncertainties in global warming science and near‐term emission policies. Clim Policy 2006, 6:573–584.
38 Mastrandrea, MD, Schneider, SH. Probabilistic integrated assessment of “dangerous” climate change. Science 2004, 304:571–575.
39 Goulder, L, Schneider, S. Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2
abatement policies. Resour Energy Econ 1999, 21:211–253.
40 Goulder, L, Mathai, K. Optimal CO2
abatement in the presence of induced technological change. J Environ Econ Manage 2000, 39:1–38.
41 Edenhofer, O, Lessman, K, Kemfert, C, Grubb, M, Kohler, J. Induced technological change: exploring its implications for the economics of atmospheric stabilization. Synthesis report from the innovation modeling comparison project. Energy J 2006, 27(Special Issue 1):1–51.
42 Weyant, J, Olavson, T. Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy. Environ Model Assess 1999, 4:67–85.
43 Jaffe, AB, Newell, RG, Stavins, RA. %22Technology policy for energy and the environment.%22 In: Jaffe, AB, Lerner, J, Stern, S, eds. Innovation Policy and the Economy, Vol 4. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
; 2004, 35–68 (chapter 2).
44 Roe, GH, Baker, MB. Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 2007, 318:629–632.
45 Weitzman, ML. On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Rev Econ Stat 2009, 91:1–19.
46 Weitzman, ML. Reactions to the Nordhaus Critique, March 17, 2009, www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/ReactionsCritique.pdf.
(Accessed July 3, 2010).
47 Nordhaus, WD. An analysis of the dismal theorem. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1686
. New Haven, CT: Yale University
48 Oppenheimer, M, O`Neill, BC, Webster, M. Negative learning. Clim Change 2008, 89:155–172.
49 Lempert, RJ, Schlesinger, ME, Bankes, SC. When we don`t know the costs or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change. Clim Change 1996, 33:235–274.
50 Lempert, RJ. Shaping tomorrow today: near‐term steps toward long‐term goals. Proceedings of a Conference
, Rand Corporation; 2009. http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF267/.
(Accessed July 1, 2010).
51 Ha‐Duong, M, Grubb, MJ, Hourcade, JC. Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2
‐emission abatement. Nature 1997, 390:270–273.
52 Webster, MD. Incorporating path‐dependency into decision‐analytic methods: an application to global climate‐change policy. Decis Anal 2008, 5:60–75.
53 Polborn, S. The political economy of carbon securities and environmental policy. Economics Department, Penn State University, January 29, 2010. www.personal.psu.edu/sep211/pol_econ_carbon_securities_polborn.pdf.
(Accessed July 10, 2010).
54 Grossman, GM, Helpman, E. Protection for Sale. Am Econ Rev 1994, 84:833–850.
55 Tol, RSJ. Short‐term decisions under long‐term uncertainty. Energy Econ 1998, 20:557–569.
56 Webster, M, Paltsev, S, Reilly, J. The Hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty. Energy Policy 2010, 38:1787–1796.