Home
This Title All WIREs
WIREs RSS Feed
How to cite this WIREs title:
WIREs Energy Environ.
Impact Factor: 3.297

Social change to avert further climate change: defining the scale of change and principles to guide a new strategy

Full article on Wiley Online Library:   HTML PDF

Can't access this content? Tell your librarian.

Abstract The inability of the international community so far to materially affect the trend in anthropogenic emissions demonstrates the urgent need to formulate an effective response to the threat of climate change. We offer a detailed picture—disaggregated by country—of the social changes necessary to reduce the rate and risk of climate change. We recognize two broad types of social change—changes that either reduce energy intensity or reduce carbon intensity. Through the Kaya identity, we demonstrate that the current business as usual scenario expects a carbon concentration of approximately 660 ppm by 2100, which corresponds to a potentially catastrophic 4.9°C temperature increase. Through a low‐carbon‐emissions scenario built on principles used by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy over the past 20 years, we show the social changes required to realize a hopefully sustainable 450 ppm carbon dioxide concentration with an equitable 3.3 ton/capita annual carbon emissions budget. We conclude that all members of the international community—even Non‐Annex 1 members—face major and immediate challenges in any common effort to address climate change. Our analysis supports exploratory efforts for the formulation of menus of social change. As a preliminary basis for identifying such menus of social change, we suggest priority be given to bottom‐up discourses that position the principles of sustainability, equity, development autonomy, and justice at the core of decision‐making. This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy
The Global Carbon Budget from 1950 to 2008. Data Source: Emissions are from Ref 20. Land‐use change flux data are from Ref 22. Annual atmospheric increase of carbon is from CDIAC database. Ocean‐to‐atmosphere flux and the residual terrestrial sink were calculated by CEEP based on the Bern model described above.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
U.S. delayed action scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Atmospheric carbon concentration under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
India's CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
China's CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Russia's CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Japan's CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
OECD Europe's CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
U.S. CO2 emissions under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Per capita CO2 emissions for Annex 1 and Non‐Annex 1 countries under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels under CEEP's LCES.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Atmospheric carbon concentration under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Carbon emissions from land‐use change under SRES scenarios. Data Source: Ref 31.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Per capita CO2 emissions for major Non‐Annex 1 countries under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Per capita CO2 emissions for major Annex 1 countries under the CEEP BAU Scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
India's CO2 emissions under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
China's CO2under the CEEP emissions under BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Russia's CO2 emissions under the CEEP BAU Scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Japan's CO2 emissions under the CEEP BAU Scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
OECD Europe's CO2 emissions under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
U.S. CO2 emissions under the CEEP BAU Scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
CO2 emissions for Annex 1 countries under the CEEP BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
CO2 emissions for major Non‐Annex 1 countries under the CEEP's BAU scenario.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Global population projections. Data Sources: Refs 21,31,33,34.
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels under SRES Scenarios. (Reprinted with permission from Ref 37. Copyright 2000, Cambridge University Press.)
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]
Estimated and projected terrestrial carbon sink. (Reprinted with permission from Ref 27. Copyright 2006, American Meteorological Society.)
[ Normal View | Magnified View ]

Related Articles

Transmutation of high‐level nuclear waste by means of accelerator driven system

Browse by Topic

Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy

Access to this WIREs title is by subscription only.

Recommend to Your
Librarian Now!

The latest WIREs articles in your inbox

Sign Up for Article Alerts