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Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change

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In an attempt to provide a unified scheme for the simulation of changing behaviors of hydrological systems, a theoretical framework for stationary and non‐stationary modeling is presented. The main triggers for hydrological change are reviewed, their impact on the long‐term properties of the inherent system are analyzed, and theoretical solutions are proposed for their representation. Model calibration is also discussed along with the impact of hydrological change on simulation uncertainty. Non‐stationarity and its simulation are examined as well. We propose a stochastic approach that is general, and allows a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. The proposed framework is relevant to integrated modeling of hydrology and human impacts and therefore fits into the concepts of ‘Panta Rhei’, the scientific decade 2013–2022 promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. WIREs Water 2014, 1:427–438. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1038 This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change
Sketch of modeling solutions for hydrological change.
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Temporal trend of flood‐related economic damages at the global scale (Source: EM‐DAT).
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