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WIREs Energy Environ.

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Capacity value assessments of wind power

Advanced Review

Michael Milligan, Bethany Frew, Eduardo Ibanez, Juha Kiviluoma, Hannele Holttinen, Lennart Söder

Published Online: Oct 05 2016

DOI: 10.1002/wene.226

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This article describes some of the recent research into the capacity value of wind power. With the worldwide increase in wind power during the past several years, there is increasing interest and significance regarding its capacity value because this has a direct influence on the amount of other (nonwind) capacity that is needed. We build on previous reviews from IEEE and IEA Wind Task 25a and examine recent work that evaluates the impact of multiple‐year data sets and the impact of interconnected systems on resource adequacy. We also provide examples that explore the use of alternative reliability metrics for wind capacity value calculations. We show how multiple‐year data sets significantly increase the robustness of results compared to single‐year assessments. Assumptions regarding the transmission interconnections play a significant role. To date, results regarding which reliability metric to use for probabilistic capacity valuation show little sensitivity to the metric. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e226. doi: 10.1002/wene.226 This article is categorized under: Wind Power > Economics and Policy Wind Power > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy

Summary of results for the capacity value of wind power for several regions as a function of the share of wind power installed in the system (image from Ref , formatted for consistency).

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Multiple‐year ELCC results from Finland using NASA/MERRA ReAnalysis data from 1979 to 2013. Temporally independent year combinations are shown in blue for 1000 MW of installed wind capacity.

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Multiple‐year ELCC results from Finland using real data (green) and NASA/MERRA ReAnalysis‐based data (blue) from 2005 to 2013 for 1000 MW of installed wind capacity.

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Multiple‐year ELCC results for 1000‐MW wind power in Ireland (image from Ref , formatted for consistency).

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Peak demand (MW) for Sweden, 1991–2011.

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Comparison of WECC simplified rule for solar capacity value with full ELCC/LOLE calculations for a single year by subregion (image from Ref , formatted for consistency).

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Comparison of WECC simplified rule for wind capacity value with full ELCC/LOLE calculations for a single year by subregion (image from Ref , formatted for consistency).

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Impact of interconnection on resource adequacy in the U.S. Western Interconnection (wind installed capacity by scenario: reference = 29 GW, high wind = 64 GW, high mix = 43 GW, high solar = 23 GW).

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Capacity value calculated on the basis of LOLE, LOLH, and EUE for selected subregions of the U.S. Western Interconnection (image from Ref , formatted for consistency).

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Map of U.S. Western Interconnection. Shaded areas show zones.

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Example of effective load‐carrying capability (adapted from Ref ).

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